000 AXNT20 KNHC 250546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 35W TO 2S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 12W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 0300 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1012 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR 25N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA WHERE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT RUNS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. VIGOROUS COLD AIR IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE PICTURES DEPICT A RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUD COVER OVER THIS REGION. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NW OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS 30-35 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AS OBSERVED FROM BUOYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS ALL BUT THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE U.S. GULF COASTAL REGION BUT PARTICULARLY E OF 90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. STRONG SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD BEGIN PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT DAY AND N TO NE WINDS 20 KT UP TO GALE FORCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...A NEW SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST REACHING NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A NEW COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THANKS TO A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS EVERYWHERE BUT MAINLY E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS 15 KT UP TO 25 KT DOMINATE. EVEN THESE MODEST TRADES SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS A COLD FRONT REDUCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 27N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND INTENSIFY INCREASING WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER THE W ATLC. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH WESTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N52W TO 24N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N42W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC HAVE SURFACE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS DUE TO A RATHER WEAK BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT W TO NW FLOW. $$ GR