000
AXNT20 KNHC 250010
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N25W 2N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
AT 40W TO 2S44W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM 
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35 AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1012 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR 
25N93W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW TO THE 
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA.  SOUTH OF THE LOW...A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  VIGOROUS COLD AIR FUNNELING 
IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST.  COOL AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE SIERRA MADRES 
AS DEPICTED BY RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUD COVER AND A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED EXTENDING NNW-SSE THROUGHOUT MOST 
OF THE LENGTH OF MEXICO.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING IN NW OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS 
30-35 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AS OBSERVED FROM 
BUOYS.  EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS ALL BUT THE SE CORNER OF THE 
GULF WITH MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER ALL OF COASTAL TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA AND BANDS OF WEAK SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.  
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD BEGIN 
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT DAY AND N TO 
NE WINDS 20 KT UP TO GALE FORCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS 
EVENING.  EASTERLY TRADEWINDS 15 KT UP TO 25 KT DOMINATE.  EVEN 
THESE MODEST TRADES SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS A COLD 
FRONT REDUCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN.  DRY SUBSIDENT AIR OVERLAYS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W.  SOME UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO 
CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 
25N70W.  FROM THERE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...THE BOUNDARY IS A COLD 
FRONT THAT REACHES 32N AT 48W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS EXIST 
UP TO 500 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N. WINDS WITHIN 500 NM 
OF THE FRONT MAY REACH GALE FORCE NORTH OF 31N.  THIS SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS 25-35 KT NORTH OF 27N AS IT 
PUSHES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
18N52W TO 24N44W TO 24N39W TH0UGH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS 
OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  AT THE NORTHEAST END 
OF THE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT BEGINS AND EXTENDS NORTH-NORTHEAST 
TO 32N23W.  WHILE NO MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITH 
THIS FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL AND 
SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC HAVE SURFACE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS DUE 
TO A RATHER WEAK BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT W TO 
NW FLOW.  THE WEAK LOW OVER THE GULF WILL QUICKLY MOVE 
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT DAY AND 
INTENSIFY.  VIGOROUS WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR IN BOTH 
THE WARM AND COLD SECTIONS OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

$$
LANDSEA