000 AXNT20 KNHC 241735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N17W 3N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 34W CONTINUING TO 3S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N CONNECTING TO A 1014 MB LOW IN THE W GULF NEAR 26N93W. THE AIRMASS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS BY NO MEANS ARCTIC BUT IT DOES SEPARATE A COOL TO MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT RUNS SWD FROM THE LOW TO S MEXICO NEAR 19N95W THEN STATIONARY NWD ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. MODERATE TO STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING NLY GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW PLENTY OF THICK CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF N OF 24N. HOWEVER...BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN THE N GULF NW OF A LINE FROM 23N98W 30N86W. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET ADVECTING IN FROM THE EPAC. IN LINE WITH IMAGERY...SEVERAL STATIONS IN S TEXAS ARE REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST BY MANY OF THE NWP MODELS TO PRESS SE PROVIDING SUPPORT TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TOMORROW...SO MORE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE THE SE GULF AND S FLA ON FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 80W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS EVERYWHERE...STRONGEST E OF 75W ENHANCED BY NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE...WHICH HAS BEEN ON THE STRONG SIDE MUCH OF THE WINTER SO FAR...IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE N. AT THE SFC...TRADES ARE STRONGEST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE AN 11Z QSCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA 25-30 KT WINDS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE AS THE GRAD REMAINS WEAKENED DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SW ATLC. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BENEATH THE STRONG MID LEVEL CAP...IS TRACKING W WITH SOME CLOUDS BECOMING BANKED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TRADES SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRES BECOMES REINFORCED N OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY TO NWLY WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF A DEEP LAYERED LOW IN THE N ATLC AND NE OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE HORIZONTALLY ALIGNED ALONG 32N52W 27N63W 25N77W THEN STATIONARY TO S FLA. DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS BASICALLY DEFINED BY A BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINE AND A SLIGHT TEMP CONTRAST. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIES IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1012 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR THE AZORES ALONG 32N23W 25N30W...THEN CONTINUING WSW AS A TROF ALONG 23N41W 19N51W. SIMILARLY TO THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/W ATLC...DEEP MOISTURE IS MINIMAL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 27W-50W...ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS WEAK DUE TO THE TWO FRONTS MENTIONED ABOVE AND TWO WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERS. ONE OF THESE HIGHS IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ANALYZED AT 1018 MB NEAR 22N63W AND THE OTHER IS 1020 MB NEAR 30N35W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF A VERY BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS FLOW BECOMES SWLY SE OF THE OCCLUDED DEEP LOW...SE OF A LINE FROM 6N30W 17N16W....ADVECTING ISOLATED POCKETS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLC. $$ CANGIALOSI