000
AXNT20 KNHC 240545
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE 
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W EQ30W 2S43W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 21W-25W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0300 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1013 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR 
26N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW TOWARD SOUTH 
FLORIDA AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE 
LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS BANKED UP 
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO SUGGESTS 
THAT A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS ALONG THE SLOPE. MOST 
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/FRONTS IS NOW
OCCURRING NEAR THE NE MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA COASTS.  
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. WHILE THE 
WEAK LOW ITSELF IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY...THE GRADIENT 
POLEWARD OF IT SHOULD AMPLIFY AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR 
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TOMORROW. A MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS N TEXAS TO A LOW OVER NORTHWEST 
MEXICO. WINDS ALOFT ARE NEARLY UNIFORM FROM THE WEST FROM 30 KT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO 100 KT ALONG THE US GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE 
ENTIRE BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA.  
THERE ARE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 60 
NM OF THE FRONT.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
OBSERVED.  AT THE SURFACE E TO NE TRADES PREVAIL WITH PEAK WINDS 
OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS 
OF COSTA RICA AS WELL AS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STABLE NW WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE 
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. A TROUGH LIES ALONG 
26/27W WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING WEST AFRICA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM A 992 MB LOW NE OF BERMUDA ALONG 28N70W TO SOUTHERN 
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT.  
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 11 
FEET. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD 
AND MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT NORTH OF 26N TODAY. THESE WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE.
A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N26W.  THE FRONT 
BECOMES STATIONARY WEST OF 36W AND REACHES THE NE CARIBBEAN. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT 
NORTH OF 26N. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  

$$
GR