000 AXNT20 KNHC 232348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 0N41W 1S46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 2100 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1012 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR 25N95W ALONG A PRE-EXISTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WARM FRONT WHICH APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING EXTENDS BOTH EAST FROM THE LOW TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS BANKED UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS ALONG THE SLOPE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE NE MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA COASTS. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THE WEAK LOW ITSELF IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY...THE GRADIENT POLEWARD OF IT SHOULD AMPLIFY AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TOMORROW. WINDS ALOFT ARE NEARLY UNIFORM FROM THE WEST FROM 30 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO 100 KT ALONG THE US GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED. AT THE SURFACE E TO NE TRADES PREVAIL WITH PEAK WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE COLUMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA FROM 32N64W TO 28N72W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 61 AND 73W. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND MODERATE SW WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N DURING THE NEXT DAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N28W TO 21N42W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WEST OF 42W AND REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALOFT...STABLE NW WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. $$ LANDSEA