000 AXNT20 KNHC 231805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N1W 4N10W 1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 35W. TRANSVERSE BANDING...POSSIBLY INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE...IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 14N19W BEYOND 16N16W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD AND GRADUAL UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 26N80W 22N87W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 27N80W TO FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N81W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 23N95W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO AN INTERIOR MEXICO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N103W. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR A SURFACE LOW CENTER TO FORM IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ALONG THE FRONT...THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE...AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD EVER-SO-SLOWLY AT 48 HOURS AND AT 72 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 17N60W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N65W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND JAMAICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W...NORTH OF 16N AT THE HONDURAS COAST WEST OF 85W...AND FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER SOUTHWARD TO PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATERS AND INLAND ACROSS THE INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES. THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W IS EXPERIENCING AND IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 9 TO 13 FEET. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRACTICALLY ALL THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY WEST OF 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 35N43W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N48W TO A SECOND 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N60W TO 22N70W. A SEPARATE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF CUBA NEAR 23N78W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N30W TO 22N40W TO 20N46W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N46W TO 18N50W TO 17N60W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 31N31W TO 26N29W 23N29W 18N30W 14N34W 10N40W. $$ MT