000 AXNT20 KNHC 191733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN THROUGH 4N20W 3N33W CROSSING THE AT 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STALLED STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM S FLA TO S MEXICO ALONG 26N82W 26N86W 28N90W TO AN ILL-DEFINED 1022 MB LOW NEAR 26N95W THEN SWD TO 19N94W. THE CLEAREST TEMP GRAD IS IN THE WRN GULF WHERE TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE 40'S AND 50'S F N AND W OF THE FRONT TO THE 70'S F S AND E. NOT SURPRISINGLY...SFC WINDS ALSO HAVE A MORE IMPRESSIVE DIR AND MAGNITUDE CHANGE IN THIS AREA. N OF THE FRONT...NELY WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT WHILE LIGHTER ELY ARE S OF IT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER RADAR IN S FLA AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ON IR PICTURES. MORE ORGANIZED MOISTURE IS FURTHER N ALONG AND N OF THE GULF COAST DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL JET ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC E/NE AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA... TITLED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. DEEP CONVECTION IS ABSENT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE/SINKING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT THE SFC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF COLOMBIA WHERE QSCAT DEPICTS NELY FLOW MAINLY IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE TRADES CONTINUE TO ADVECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BANK LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL AMERICAN TERRAIN WHERE SOME STATIONS ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TOMORROW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIB COVERS THE WRN ATLC...W OF ABOUT 65W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...MAINLY N OF 28N FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET IN THE PACIFIC. S OF 28N...MODERATE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE. AT THE SFC...A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N72W AND STRETCHES TO S FLORIDA. A SURGE IN NWLY WINDS IS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL RACE QUICKLY E THROUGH THE WRN ATLC ON SAT...THOUGH MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXISTS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH....IS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N48W WITH A SFC TROF EXTENDING NEWD TO 30N44W AND SWWD FROM THE LOW TO 21N52W. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES TO THE N/NE OF THE CENTER N OF 23N BETWEEN 41W-47W. GFS SHOWS THIS LOW TRACKING NE AND DEEPENING TOMORROW EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER MORE POWERFUL LOW TO ITS NW ON SUN. IN THE E ATLC...A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS NEAR 27N23W. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS OVER AND N OF OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE E ATLC DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TO NE WINDS SW OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ANCHORED IN PORTUGAL. A TROPICAL WSW UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO THE AFRICAN COAST WITHIN 500 NM SE OF A LINE ALONG 7N58W 15N34W 21N17W. THIS JET IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-37W. $$ CANGIALOSI