000 AXNT20 KNHC 190557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N30W EQ50W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS MORE PROMINENT TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE NOW SEEN WITHIN 150NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER MOISTURE EWD FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF WATERS N OF 26N...AROUND THE DOMINATING UPPER RIDGE. DRY AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONT STILL AROUND...EXTENDING W FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W THEN S THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY W OF 88W. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE RELAXED STEADILY OVER THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS...EXCEPT OFF THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST WHERE LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE WIND WAVES. HIGHEST WINDS/WAVES TO PERSIST NRN GULF WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 88W THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA MOVES E WHILE INTERACTING WITH LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH. SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR FORECAST DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGING AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. DEEP CONVECTION THEREBY REMAINS ABSENT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT THE SFC. THE SFC WIND MAXIMA REMAINS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 30 KT. TRADES CONTINUE TO ADVECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BANKS UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC. RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE THROUGH THE SE U.S. AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N. 1019 MB SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N77W AND CONTINUES SW TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST. FRONT WILL RACE QUICKLY E THROUGH THE WRN ATLC THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 53W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N42W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N60W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-46W. QUASI-STATIONARY 1014 MB SFC LOW NEAR 23N50W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ITS E FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 41W-49W. GFS INDICATES THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 1008 MB BY TONIGHT WHILE MOVING NE...THEN GET ABSORBED INTO THE POWERFUL...COMPLEX LOW SE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SUNDAY. PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 27N24W. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS N OF 22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W. SFC PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TO NE WINDS SW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM PORTUGAL. WSW JET OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ENE FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO THE AFRICAN COAST. $$ WILLIS