000 AXNT20 KNHC 180004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N30W 2N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 31W-35W... FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 39W-45W... AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1035 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO THEN BENDS SHARPLY S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N80W 25N93W 18N92W. 20-25 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE A GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF W OF FRONT AND S OF 25N. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT. IN CONTRAST...10-15 KT ELY WINDS ARE S AND E OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S...20-30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE COLD AIR MASS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH UPPER WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE W. A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER N MEXICO AND THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO DRIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 29N80W TO THE NW GULF AT 26N95W THEN DIP S TO 18N94W BY THURSDAY EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY OVER HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 30KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ALOFT...EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 88W HAS DRY CYCLONIC AIR ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER S GUATEMALA NEAR 15N92W. THE CARIBBEAN HAS DRY SWLY FLOW DUE TO A RIDGE OVER S AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N60W 28N70W 26N80W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N36W. FURTHER S ...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N51W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 26N48W 22N51W 18N58W. LOW TO MID CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 44W-54W. E OF 35W A DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS EVIDENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 21N53W. WLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA