000 AXNT20 KNHC 170512 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N26W 2N41W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-44W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N GULF WHILE THE S PORTION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK WESTWARD. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO N OF TAMPA ALONG 25N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES AS WELL AS MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS INLAND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE GULF REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS FUELING THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE US EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N82W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN NE OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SURGE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWERS. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING THE GULF OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ALONG 32N76W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE US. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W AND COVERS THE ATLC W OF 60W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE THE AREA LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N55W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING SW OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO 25N51W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 45W-54W. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N42W TO THE W ATLC OFF THE US E COAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICAL ATLC INCLUDING THE SE CARIBBEAN. $$ WALLACE