000
AXNT20 KNHC 151151
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N3W 5N15W 2N34W 2N44W ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-49W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING N 
OVER THE E US ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST N OF W CUBA NEAR 
24N84W. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO 
STREAM ACROSS MEXICO OVER E TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
WHILE THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE 
TEXAS COAST WITH A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI 
AND BROWNSVILLE. A 20 TO 30 DEG TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT 
GRADIENT DELINEATES THE FRONT BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO SUGGESTING 
A SHALLOW AIR MASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW IN THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO JUST N OF 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC 
ACROSS THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WITH A WEAK 1025 MB HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA. LIGHT/ 
MODERATE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BUT WILL CHANGE BEHIND THE 
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 85W. THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AS WELL AS AN 
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE BY MON NIGHT/ 
TUE MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST N OF W CUBA COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...W ATLC...AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CUT-OFF UPPER 
LOW OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N 
E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
REGION AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W 
ATLC W OF 70W. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE 
AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N W 
OF 79W. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N54W 
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. AN 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N52W ALONG 23N51W TO 31N42W 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-26N 
BETWEEN 43W-53W. STRONG E/W SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF 
THE ATLC WITH A 1031 MB HIGH ANCHORED JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 
33N63W AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED 
DEEP IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 20N17W TO 33N9W. THE AFRICAN DUST PLUM IS 
DISPERSING AS IT SPREADS W OVER THE E ATLC E OF 45W. 
  
$$
WALLACE