000 AXNT20 KNHC 141121 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N2W 5N10W 2N31W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 33W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE E US ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE E US WHILE THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1018 MB LOW OVER NE TEXAS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 92W WITH MODERATE/ STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. WEAK RETURN FLOW IS EVIDENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W CUBA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 68W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS SW TO 13N67W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE W ATLC...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 78W STREAMING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N44W SW TO OVER THE VIRGIN /LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N43W TO 28N48W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE W FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 54W-63W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH A 1030 MB HIGH ANCHORED JUST N OF BERMUDA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC. WEAK REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE E ATLC ALONG 26N EXTENDING FROM 27N-33N. AFRICAN DUST PLUM IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N E OF 40W AND FROM 23N-36N E OF 25W. $$ WALLACE