000 AXNT20 KNHC 131745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 7N15W 4N25W 2N35W AND THEN CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-32. OVERALL THOUGH...VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED NM OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SW PORTION OF STRONG ATLC SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PRODUCING 10 TO 20 KT SE FLOW...ALONG WITH MODERATE ESE WIND WAVES AND SWELL. THE GULF REMAINS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NARROW ZONE OF LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN UP AGAINST THE MEXICAN COAST AND ADJACENT SW GULF WATERS. CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO SEEN BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...ROTATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. UPPER RIDGING ALSO HOVERS OVER THE GULF...WHICH IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NRN GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO THE DEEP SOUTH/SE U.S. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE NW GULF DURING MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH GALE FORCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY...AS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG ATLC HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING THOUGH...WIDESPREAD 20-30 KT ELY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. SIMILAR TRADES TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE SE PORTION BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS AREA NOW SEEMS TO BE GETTING SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE THIS MOISTURE RICH AREA FAIRLY WELL...AND SUGGEST THE AREA WILL SHRINK A BIT INTO SUNDAY. WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W REMAINS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING AND VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1034 MB SFC HIGH JUST NE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED 6 TO 12 FT SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD E TO NE SWELL HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. THIS SUBSIDES VERY SLOWLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SLIDES E AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TRADE FLOW ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS ADVECTING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. STATIONARY FRONT SEEN ON THE 1200 UTC MAP IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS BECOMING DIFFUSE. UPPER PATTERN IN W AND CENTRAL ATLC DOMINATED BY A RIDGE TO THE W THEN A SHARP TROUGH. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH 24N60W 32N52W. ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL IN THE E ATLC WITH JUST A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED. E ATLC SFC PATTERN GENERALLY DOMINATED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...THOUGH A DISSIPATING 1020 MB SFC LOW NEAR 29N24W HAS LIGHTER WINDS ROTATING AROUND ITSELF. $$ WILLIS