000 AXNT20 KNHC 130507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 21W THEN ALONG 1N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 28W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE E US ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CROSSES MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED IN THE GULF ON MON. CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RETURN FLOW BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THEW BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF ATTRIBUTED TO THE SAME EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO 15N76W. THE STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N FROM 66W-72W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W ALONG 24N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM 20N-26N AND S OF 20N FROM 64W-72W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION EXTENDING OVER THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 19N58W NE TO BEYOND 32N36W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 31N24W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N FROM 24N THROUGH A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 29N26W TO BEYOND 32N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 20W-24W. $$ WALLACE