000 AXNT20 KNHC 101756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...5N13W 3N24W 4N30W 1N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22N-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 28. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THAT CLEARED THE GULF YESTERDAY CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC...E CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE POOLING AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR IN MEXICO BY MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS. A MUCH COOLER AND SEASONABLE AIR MASS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A 1030 MB HIGH ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W AND A LARGER 1033 MB HIGH INLAND OVER THE SE US. SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES E ACROSS THE SE US. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC AND E CUBA HAS BEEN EXTENDED SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 21N78W TO 17N85W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTICED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IMPLY THAT A COOL AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS INVADED THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WHILE A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE SEEN MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA... PARTICULARLY OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA UNDER A NE WIND FLOW. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THU THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILD N OF THE AREA AND MOVES E. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE FOUND JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 28. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR NEAR 31N64W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/E CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1000 MB LOW MOVING NE WELL N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N65W TO 27N80W. A 60-80 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING COLD FRONT WHILE THE SECOND ONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN MUCH DRIER AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND EXTENDS FROM A ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 25N55W DIPPING S INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO ERODE THE UPPER TROUGH THAT LINGERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N FROM 30W-50W. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SW ALONG 23N23W 18N67W. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RUNS FROM NEAR 15N30W NE INTO WEST AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH PROBABLY REFLECTION OF THE LOW/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB LOW NEAR 36N14W TO 31N17W. THE TROPICS REMAINS DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. $$ GR