000 AXNT20 KNHC 081111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N FROM ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W THEN ALONG 4N42W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 1N28W TO 5N40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE GULF JUST E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA CONTINUING S ALONG 24N92W INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N86W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANK...SKIES ARE CLEARING THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20'S AND 30'S ACROSS TEXAS...THUS DRYING OUT. THE E GULF INCLUDING FLORIDA IS CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DETECTED USHERED IN ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS EXPECTED...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD CLEARING THE GULF ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROW UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REGION W OF 80W. MORE COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS LEEWARD/ VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W W JUST S OF JAMAICA TO 16N80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR DOMINATE THE REGION WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO ARE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STRONG TRADE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA COUPLED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LEAVING THE AREA W OF 60W MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N54W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N49W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 46W-54W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N E OF 26W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 6N35W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N FROM AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N56W AND A 1031 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N22W. $$ WALLACE