000 AXNT20 KNHC 080539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N FROM ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W THEN ALONG 3N38W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 2N28W TO 4N40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 86W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER CONTINUING S ALONG 25N92W INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INLAND OVER THE SE US WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE N GULF COAST NEAR 20N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANK...SKIES ARE CLEARING THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20'S AND 30'S ACROSS TEXAS...THUS DRYING OUT. THE E GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA IS EXPERIENCING CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE DETECTED USHERED IN ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS EXPECTED...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD CLEARING THE GULF ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROW UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REGION W OF 80W. MORE COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W W TO A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST S OF JAMAICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR DOMINATE THE REGION WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO ARE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W COUPLED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS LEAVING THE AREA W OF 60W MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N52W S TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 21N55W THEN SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N48W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 18N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 45W-56W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N E OF 26W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 7N37W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N FROM AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. A 1029 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N58W AND A 1033 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N22W. $$ WALLACE