000 AXNT20 KNHC 071153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N10W 2N20W 3N30W 3N37W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR AT 46W...AND 2S50W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. POSSIBLE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 8W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 46W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF 10N ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW IN U.S.A. MOUNTAIN WEST STATES. THE MOISTURE IS WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF 30N90W 22N100W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. A WARM FRONT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND REACHES A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A COLD FRONT CURVES TO 28N95W 25N96W 22N98W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GULF WATERS AND REACH FLORIDA BY 48 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N55W TO 16N68W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N78W IN THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE TROUGH...MOSTLY WEST OF 80W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N83W...ABOUT 90 NM SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N51W TO A SECOND ONE NEAR 20N55W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N47W 23N54W 18N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 48W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. THE WIND FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 70W IS LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC...RELATED TO THE 21N83W ANTICYCLONIC CENTER SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N21W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N TO 34N BETWEEN 16W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N26W 24N25W 26N25W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 26N TO 36N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. $$ MT