000 AXNT20 KNHC 062324 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N15W 6N30W ...CURVING TO 3N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... FAIR AND UNSEASONABLE HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE GULF UNDER 10 TO 20 KT S-SELY SFC FLOW AND ABUNDANT DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR. THIS AIRMASS LIES AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND BRO INTO NRN MEXICO. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE STATIONARY MUCH LONGER AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER CO/NM...APPROACHES. THERE ISN'T MUCH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AT THE MOMENT AS DOPPLER RADAR ONLY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE NE GULF TRIGGERED BY THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM JAX ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE FL PANHANDLE TO 28N90W. AS MENTIONED...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME PROGRESSIVE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW AND MAY CLEAR THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG NLY WINDS ADVECTING A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE W CARIB AND THE SE GULF WITH THE BASE OF A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS. THIS CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REGION. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BENEATH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...IS BEING STIRRED UP AND DRIVEN W BY STRONG TRADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE SW CARIB WHERE OBS AND QSCAT SUGGEST 25-30 KT. THESE WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE THRU SUN AND GRADUALLY SLACKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE AREA BREAKS DOWN. THE DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG RATHER FLAT SFC RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH THREE SFC HIGH CENTERS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGING IS BEING INTERRUPTED BY A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ALONG 19N56W 26N50W 30N43W. THIS SFC FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 50W-56W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO THE NNE OF THE MAIN ONE NEAR 31N49W. THIS SMALL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED S AND AMPLIFY THE SRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH FURTHER. GFS SHOWS THIS FEATURE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TOMORROW AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NW AND WEAKENING EARLY WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS COVER THE ATLC W OF 56W...SUPPORTED BY NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE TROPICAL E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...THICKEST FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 25W-40W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED IN THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN ITS VICINITY N OF 27N BETWEEN 21W-26W. $$ CANGIALOSI