000 AXNT20 KNHC 050609 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2N15W 4N30W 3N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 2W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW OVER ERN LOUISIANA EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ALONG 29N91W 25N93W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NRN GULF WATERS JUST S OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTENDS INLAND INTO THE ADJACENT GULF COAST STATES. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS DIMINISHING...WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC HIGH BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. INSTEAD...SFC FLOW IS BECOMING DIFFLUENT WITH LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW NOW ESTABLISHED OFF THE TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE BROAD LOW AND TROUGH OVER NW TEXAS. UPPER SUPPORT IS HEALTHIER WITH DISTINCT DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE ERN GULF. SFC WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE SE TO S 15-20 KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE BACKING OFF A NOTCH INTO FRI NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRADE FLOW NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. 0000 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUED TO VERIFY THIS WITH 30-35 KT E WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BRISK 20-30 KT TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. BESIDES FOR THE STRONG TRADES...THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS ABUNDANT VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB AND TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIB. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...AFFECTING THE LESSER/GREATER ANTILLES FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 65W. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS E OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING SSW FROM 32N55W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE TO ITS E IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 50W-56W. THIS IS ALSO GETTING LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE OLD SFC COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N44W AND EXTENDS WSW TO 28N68W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH 31N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATED SE OF THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N40W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150NM OF THIS TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY. REMAINDER OF SW AND CENTRAL NORTH ATLC SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY A RIDGE FROM A 1033MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 35N58W. IN THE ERN ATLC...AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 22N37W. A WIDE AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW...N OF 20N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 35W. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS SPREADING E AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC. 1035 MB SFC HIGH N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE E ATLC AS WELL. $$ MW/GR