000 AXNT20 KNHC 032347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN 3N15W 3N30W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W TO 1S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-34W...AND NEAR EQ7W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING STRONG SWLY FLOW OVER NE MEXICO...SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SE TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SE TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND WILL MERGE WITH THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NEW SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF TOMORROW. SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 90W-96W. AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE SE U.S. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY AIR...RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE BASIN. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE PATCHES ARE AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRES OVER ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRISK E TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN WITH GALE CONDITIONS JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST INTO THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N57W...THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WWD ALONG 28N65W 28N75W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 22N43W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR 12N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 24N43W TO 17N48W. BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 10N AND E OF 40W. A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N34W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 24N46W. $$ GR