000 AXNT20 KNHC 031127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N6W 4N19W 6N32W 3N43W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 19W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 34W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER NW MEXICO WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF THU THEN MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF ACROSS S FLORIDA TO 25N84W WHERE IT BEGINS TO RETREAT NE AS WARM FRONT ALONG 23N92W INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING ALL OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO NEAR 17N89W INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W COVERING THE AREA W OF 80W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE USHERED IN ON STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W TO NEAR 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM NW OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 24N66W COVERING THE ATLC W OF 50W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N32W SW ALONG 29N36W TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N46W TO NEAR 11N52W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BARELY EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N34W TO 27N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE NE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 40W-45W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA OF AFRICA. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. $$ WALLACE