000 AXNT20 KNHC 030504 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 5N19W 3N34W 2N45W EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N24W TO 6N32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N E OF 21W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF ACROSS S FLORIDA ALONG 23N90W INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/ TEXAS COAST AND IN THE STRAITS FLORIDA E OF 82W. THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. CARIBBEAN SEA... NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N84W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W COVERING THE AREA W OF 80W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THUS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE USHERED IN ON STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W CROSSING S FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM W OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 24N61W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 55W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W SW TO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N48W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N33W SW TO 26N42W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. $$ WALLACE