000
AXNT20 KNHC 020458
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N28W 2N41W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-20W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW AND 
ASSOCIATED ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO 
THE NW ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS 
THE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA CONTINUING ALONG 24N87W 
BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF 
THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE 
FRONT. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE THROUGH N MEXICO. THE FAR SE GULF OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT BUT WILL SEE 
INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT 
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE W ATLC. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO W CUBA 
COVERING THE AREA W OF 80W. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO NEAR 
13N78W AND COVERS THE E TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AT 
ALL LEVELS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION EXCEPT IN 
THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THUS LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. SOME 
WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE USHERED IN ON 
STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 
24N69W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 60W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS 
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 38W-60W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT IS WEAKENING AND EXTENDS TO THE REGION NEAR 32N40W SW TO 
26N47W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N40W SW TO 
22N48W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE 
E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N41W TO 
BEYOND 32N38W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE 
CANARY ISLANDS. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 

$$
WALLACE