000
AXNT20 KNHC 251814
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 7N30W 8N50W 9N61W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
5N-11N BETWEEN 15W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 32W-43W...AND FROM 6N-13N 
BETWEEN 43W-49W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W.    

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N82W.  A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N97W.  10-15 KT 
ELY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED LOW 
CLOUDS DOTS THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS ALONG 
20N74W 18N82W 15N83W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF 
PANAMA NEAR 12N78W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-82W...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 76W-78W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 15N-18N 
BETWEEN 75W-79W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W-82W.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT 
THE FRONT TO DRIFT NW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT CONVECTION 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DRIFT W OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF 
CONVECTION.  LASTLY...MORE CONVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM E OF BERMUDA TO 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 32N61W 20N74W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W.  MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW IS 
FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-60W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 
50W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 
10N E OF 25W.  

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FORMOSA