000 AXNT20 KNHC 171151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...MOVING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N54W TO 22N57W TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 30N54W TO THE NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W...PROBABLY MUCH MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND NOT THERE BECAUSE OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 8N12W 6N38W CURVING TO 10N50W...11N54W 10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 44W. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS TROUGH RUNS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND BEYOND SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W...CROSSING CUBA ALONG 80W...INTO SOUTHERN BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N77W 28N75W BEYOND 32N73W. EVERYTHING IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N73W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR COVER THE AREA EAST OF 70W...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE TROUGH GOES FROM 30N54W TO 22N57W...AND THEN TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE REST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. A 66W/67W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR...JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS CUBA ALONG 80W AND ENDS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 22N82W 18N83W 15N85W...FROM CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...ARE SOUTH OF 14N FROM 73W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS TROUGH RUNS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND BEYOND 32N72W. THIS RIDGE IS FOLLOWED TO THE EAST BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STARTS OUT IN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 30N54W AND EXTENDS TO 22N57W...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. DRY AIR IS MOVING SOUTHWARD...IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 10N TO 32N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THE RIDGE...FROM 10N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 55W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS JUST WEST OF SPAIN/PORTUGAL AND NORTHERN MOROCCO...OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MOROCCO. $$ MT