000 AXNT20 KNHC 162356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 18N MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 29W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 100NM OF THE AXIS...WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS BEING DISPLACED NE/E OF THE AXIS WITH WSW SHEAR OVER THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE MIDST OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N40W. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 59W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THERE MAY BE A HINT OF CYCLONIC TURNING SOUTH OF GUATEMALA BUT IT IS EASIER TO LOCATE THE WAVE FROM A GOES12 HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. CONVECTION WITHIN 2O0NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS IS MINIMAL THOUGH ONE SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 11N90W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N25W 10N35W 6N50W 7N60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 12W-17W. MUCH SMALLER PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SEEN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 17W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 23W-30W. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 200NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-94W. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1027MB HIGH NEAR THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH THE 995MB LOW IN SW ARKANSAS. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS ESE FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE FAR NRN GULF WATERS S OF THE FL PANHANDLE...BUT RECENT DATA SUGGESTS THIS IS NOW NORTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE NW. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS AFFECTING THE FAR NW GULF/COASTAL TEXAS AND EXTENDS NE THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO RELAX INTO TOMORROW WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 22N87W. THIS IS HELPING TO SPREAD SOME OF THE THE MID TO UPPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN TO THE NE INTO THE SW GULF W OF 95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SAME UPPER HIGH DOMINATING THE GULF IS DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THIS REGION ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY MID TO UPPER AIR AND FAIR WEATHER. THE WRN CARIBBEAN SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY 10-20 KT SE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDING S FROM NEW JERSEY. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE ATLC AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 15N71W TO THE 1008MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100NM OF THIS TROUGH HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH 24HRS...SO ASSOCIATED TROUGHING MAY CONTINUE TO SPARK OCC. SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VICINITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST N OF THE YUCATAN DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND 10-20KT E/ESE FLOW ALSO UNDER CONTROL HERE...S OF THE 1027MB CENTER NEAR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 55W-67W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG 32N55W 27N58W THAT EXTENDS SSE AS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE 1008MB LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT/TROUGH IS OVERALL MINIMAL ASIDE FROM A NEW CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 59W-62W. THE TROUGH/LOW N OF PUERTO RICO EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH 24HRS WHILE THE COLD FRONT LIFTS NE. MID TO UPPER TROUGHING IS DOMINATING THE ERN ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-48W...INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W. THIS IS PRODUCING WSW SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W. ERN ATLC ALSO DOMINATED BY A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N40W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY S THROUGH TOMORROW. $$ WILLIS