000 AXNT20 KNHC 171058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AND INVERTED V PATTERN IS NOTED WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW A CLEAR CYCLONIC CURVATURE ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS ESPECIALLY N OF 13N...THOUGH SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE JAMAICAN CHANNEL AND ALSO THE WATERS JUST N OF ERN CUBA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE COASTAL HONDURAS/NRN NICARAGUA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES NEAR 10N79W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 13N31W 13N34W 11N43W 9N47W...AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 8N69W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...JUST SOUTH OF THE AXIS. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W...AND ALSO JUST OFF THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA IN THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING IN THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 26N87W AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. A WEAK 1012MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 25N88W...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NNE THROUGH THIS LOW FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 28N88W. THIS IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE STRONGEST CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OFFSHORE SW FLORIDA FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE WRN PORTION OF THE ATLC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD IN ITS WAKE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXTENDING S THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH CENTRAL PANAMA. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN...WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER WRN HONDURAS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL CUBA IS AFFECTING THE NEARBY NRN CARIBBEAN WATERS. UPPER WESTERLIES SSW OF THE ATLC UPPER LOW NEAR 21N60W IS AFFECTING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. 10 TO 20 KT TRADE FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AS THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLC HIGH INTERACTS WITH A 1008MB LOW OVER NW VENEZUELA. LIGHTER WINDS OBSERVED IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN IN TACT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 120 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 25 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR 30N62W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THIS LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 150NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 68W. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS SEEN SPINNING NEAR 21N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN NEAR THIS UPPER LOW FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 22N33W...BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC FROM 7N TO 30N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 50W. THIS REGION IS ALSO DOMINATED BY VAST FAIR WEATHER...AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. $$ WILLIS