000 AXNT20 KNHC 031147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CHRIS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS ABOUT 285 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...AND ABOUT 120 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE CENTER IS NEAR 20.5N 66.8W AT 03/1200 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO ARE NOT AS NUMEROUS NOW. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT THIS MOMENT THAN THEY WERE SIX HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 22N60W ABOUT 380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF T.S. CHRIS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITH THIS WAVE AND JUST THIS WAVE ALONE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WAY TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE... EXIST FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA ALONG 76W MOVING WEST 15 KT. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W/101W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF POSSIBLE DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THAT AREA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N13W 12N29W 10N39W 8N43W 6N51W 6N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 60 TO 75 NM EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. A SECOND ONE IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER EXISTS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. THE THIRD LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO BE THE BERRY ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS 26N78W FEATURE. CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 23N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE BAHAMAS LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF POSSIBLE DIFFLUENT FLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THAT AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. CHRIS NOW IS COMPARATIVELY MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 380 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF T.S. CHRIS. THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF ANY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER ON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TOP OF T.S. CHRIS MAY BE MINIMAL. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 20N76W 15N83W...EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W BECAUSE OF T.S. CHRIS. UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST FLOW RUNS FROM VENEZUELA...ACROSS COLOMBIA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND PASSES ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N41W TO 30N45W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 28N57W TO THE 22N60W LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FILLING THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE 33N41W 22N60W TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 34N40W TO 31N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N43W TO 22N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N59W 24N55W 27N50W...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 33N31W TO 27N40W TO 21N50W. A RIDGE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N63W AND GOES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. $$ MT