000
AXNT20 KNHC 171743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 24W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER 
OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST E 
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W.   

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W S OF 25N MOVING W AT 
15-20 KT. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE 
FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING 
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N62W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE 
WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MOVE TO PUERTO RICO 
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO 
THESE ISLANDS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 
AT 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE AHEAD OF THE WAVE 
AXIS NEAR THE C AMERICA COAST FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 
84W. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EPAC ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE INLAND OVER SOUTH MEXICO ALONG 96W S OF 19N MOVING 
W AT 10-15 KT NOT PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N25W 6N39W 8N48W 9N60W. OUTSIDE 
OF TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 
10N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 
34W TO 45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
GULF. REMNANT TSTMS FROM A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE U.S. 
HAVE PUSHED S OF LOUISIANA TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS 
RELATIVELY FREE OF CONVECTION UNDER BROAD ELY SUBSIDENT FLOW 
ALOFT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE N GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE COAST DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.   
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AT 
20N82W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ACROSS BELIZE AND 
GUATEMALA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TYPICAL SURFACE 
TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS NEAR 25 KT JUST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N41W 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BREAK IN THE 
RIDGE NEAR 28N78W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OFF THE E COAST 
AND ITS STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE. ELY TRADE WIND FLOW 
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS FROM 15N TO 30N EAST 
OF 50W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
ALOFT BETWEEN 17N TO 30N FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 45W. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER 
LOW NEAR 23N62W TO 18N64W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W.
 
$$
MUNDELL