000 AXNT20 KNHC 121711 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. EARLY THIS MORNING CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED AROUND A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 56W-58W. THIS WAVE REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. A CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS SIGNATURE AS IT TRAVELED WESTWARD IN A RATHER DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N30W 6N46W 6N57W. THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-47W. A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE MIGHT BE ALONG 21W BUT THIS IS RATHER INCONCLUSIVE FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N89W WITH ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY ON THE MOIST E SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH ALONG 79W FROM 22N-27N ENHANCED BY THE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SLIDES WESTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM A WEAKENING UPPER LOW S OF HAITI TO PANAMA. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO'S UPPER LOW COVERS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 82W. RIDGING LIES TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 67W-72W. AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND ILL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRES OR A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL BE SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THE GREATER ANTILLES ON THU AND FRI. TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE E OF 80W WITH A BUOY REPORTING 25 KT BEHIND THE APPROACHING WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN ... A BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE SFC HIGH PRES CENTERS SCATTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HIGH PRES IS SUPPLYING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN SOUTH OF 32N. A WEAK DISSIPATING BENIGN SFC TROUGH LIES FROM 28N59W TO 34N52W CONTAMINATES THE RIDGE CAUSING A SLIGHT KINK IN THE ISOBARIC PATTERN AND PRODUCING A LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA RAIN FREE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND A SFC TROUGH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WAVE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND CARIBBEAN SECTION AND REFER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR A DISCUSSION ON THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. $$ CANGIALOSI