000
AXNT20 KNHC 241754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 5N30W 6N40W 3N51W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA 
FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 3W-8W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 20W-30W...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 34W-40W... AND FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 46W-52W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 
30N85W.  LIGHT 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO N OF 24N AND E OF 88W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 
10-15 SWLY FLOW.  THE ENTIRE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER AND IS VOID 
OF CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF 
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM 
TAMPICO MEXICO TO S LOUISIANA TO N FLORIDA PRODUCING SCATTERED 
HIGH CLOUDS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER TEXAS AND ENTER THE NW GULF 
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO.        

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 14N AND E 
OF 80W.   10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.  AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA 
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S BELIZE.  ELSEWHERE 
...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 11N AND 
E OF 65W TO INCLUDE TRINIDAD.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A BAND OF PACIFIC 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N PRODUCING SCATTERED 
HIGH CLOUDS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE SEA.  EXPECT THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION TO BE 
OVER NW COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA ...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
FROM 32N72W TO 29N78W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 
34N61W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N39W 
TO 24N50W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO N OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR 20N64W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONTS.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N25W.  A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N41W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 
60W-75W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N64W.  
MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  WLY ZONAL 
FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 25W-60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 25W.  AN 
EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS OVER N MOROCCO NEAR 33N3W.  IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS... ELY FLOW IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT... 
THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.  ALSO EXPECT  
THE TWO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FRONT TO SHIFT ABOUT FIVE DEGREES E LONGITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA