000 AXNT20 KNHC 201110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 11N10W 8N20W 3N30W 2N40W 2N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 1W AND 6W...AND OFF THE COASTS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 6.5N12W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N14W 8N20W 6N30W 4N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TOWARD FRENCH GUIANA FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 27N110W TO 21N113W IN THE PACIFIC WATERS. AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WATERS JUST WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TEXAS HAVE DISSIPATED. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS IN SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS HAS WEAKENED AND IT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALL THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO ARKANSAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS PRESENT IN MOST PARTS OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AND SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS BLOWING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE GULF MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE SURROUNDING THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N53W 26N51W 29N48W BEYOND 32N46W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...IT CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND CONTINUES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE NORTH OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER BERMUDA-TO- NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TROUGH...ALONG 17N53W 24N49W BEYOND 32N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N53W 26N51W 29N48W BEYOND 32N46W. BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A NORTHEASTERN SPAIN LOW CENTER TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 35N17W LOW CENTER TO 23N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST OFF THE GUYANA COAST NEAR 9N59W TO 17N50W 23N43W 28N38W TO AN ATLANTIC 1028 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N31W. $$ MT