000 AXNT20 KNHC 260524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-34W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-1N FROM 45W WESTWARD TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN-MOST ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER N MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE W OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF AND OVER FLORIDA. NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 15-20 KT ARE COMMON E OF 93W WITH LIGHTER EASTERLIES W OF THERE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS PRODUCING THICK LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY AND SPREADING OUT INTO THE WESTERN GULF W OF 94W. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. COASTLINE MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING EASTERLIES AND SE RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF. UNTIL THEN...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 10N57W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. PERSISTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER S AMERICA...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SEA AND FLOWS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT AND IS CONTAINED S OF 15N BETWEEN 50W-68W. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A BROKEN LINE OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MOST ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SEA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES EXIST IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO ALREADY BE DISSIPATING IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE SEA TOMORROW. ATLANTIC... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF 60W WITH A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN BETWEEN...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE... A QUICK MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM A 987 MB LOW PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N65W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N55W 26N63W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EWARD AND DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. A 1021 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 23N44W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ S OF 26N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 976 MB GALE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC AND CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N25W 27N32W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 15W-57W INFLUENCED BY AN 80-100 KT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY JET AND ENHANCED BY THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. $$ CANGIALOSI