000
AXNT20 KNHC 012354
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W EQ30W 4S40W 2S45W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N 
BETWEEN 11W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S 
BETWEEN 39.5W-50W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 19N89W 25N87W.  
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL 
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE 
ATLANTIC. 10-15 KT SLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF 
OF MEXICO NEAR 22N93W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF 
THE GULF.  EXPECT SLY SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUED FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
25-30 KT ELY WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  
LIGHTER 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA. ONE OF THEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A 
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION IS CROSSING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 
PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF 
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S.VIRGIN 
ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR PATCHES OF LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF GUYANA 
DOMINATES NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA GIVING SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE ENTIRE 
BASIN...BUT PARTICULARLY EAST OF 70W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER 
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28.5N-33.5W. FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM 
TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLANTIC FROM 30N38W TO 25.5N46W.  BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE AREA. 
WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 20W-40W. A TROUGH IS N OF 10N AND E OF 20W. WLY FLOW IS 
OVER THE TROPICS.    

$$
GR