000 AXNT20 KNHC 100003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI DEC 08 2005 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N20W 5N30W 3N40W 4N51W 6N601W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 54W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80 T0 100 KT OVER THE GULF AND HIGHER WINDS OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS N MEXICO/GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS JET IS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...NORTH OF 24N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS BEING PUSHED ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE GULF COAST AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST STATES...BEYOND FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SHORT WAVE IS ACROSS E MEXICO WITH SW UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N77W...THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 21N-93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N-93W TO A SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 21N-94W. ALSO...A COLD FROM EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N-93W. THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER IS MARKED BY A LINE OF CLOUDS...WHICH EASILY IS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ALSO A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE GULF DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CENTER. A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDS FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO ALL THE WAY NE ACROSS CENTRAL/NE GULF ENTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N-83W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF 80 W. THESE TRADEWIND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NW CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 16N AND BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA. A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 14N70W...JUST NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST STATES...BEYOND FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FASTEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THIS JET STREAM RANGE FROM 80 KT TO 100 KT NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-37W WHILE AN EASTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH TO AFRICA. THE FIRST TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 31N34W 26N40W 22N50W. THIS FRONT IS THE FRONT WHICH WILL ABSORB THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N38W...WHICH IS THE REMNANT LOW OF EPSILON. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...COVERING A LARGE AREA NORTH OF 23N AND BETWEEN 40W-60W. A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. $$ GR