000 AXNT20 KNHC 270621 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU 27 MAY 2004 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. THE FORMAT FOR THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL CHANGE ON JULY 6 2004 BEGINNING WITH THE 205 PM ISSUANCE. INFORMATION ABOUT THE CHANGES IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/SCN04-26ATL.TXT (ALL LOWERCASE). BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURE... TROUGH FROM 1008 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N61W GOES TO 25N65W AND 20N70W...TO THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS THE SAME AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE THE RAIN WHICH CAUSED FLOODING AND DEATHS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS IN HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD STRETCHED FROM 69W/70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 73W IN HAITI AS LATE AS 27/0045 UTC. THAT AREA OF STORMS HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N58W 23N65W 21N67W...DISSIPATING TO 20N71W. SOME STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA NORTH OF 22N70W 28N60W...AROUND THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS RIGHT ON TOP OF SURFACE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH...STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W...IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...SW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EASTERN PANAMA SOUTH OF 11N. THE ITCZ IN NW COLOMBIA ALSO IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION 7N2W 6N21W 6N40W 6N60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE...FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W...WITH THE 40W TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 37W... AND SOUTHWEST OF 3N40W 10N51W 10N61W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM EASTERN TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS FINALLY HAS MOVED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...AND NOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO ANY DEEP LAYER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W/83W IS RIGHT ON TOP OF SOME NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...AND MORE IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...AND SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM EAST TO WEST. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 31N61W TO 20N70W SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMNANT OF THIS TROUGH IS BEING STRETCHED ALONG MORE OF AN EAST-WEST LINE NOW...FROM 26N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N98W OF MEXICO...JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE TROUGH WHICH ROUGHLY STRETCHED FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO 26N25W DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS HAS MOVED INLAND AND NOW IS FOUND FROM ALGERIA TO MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA. A RIDGE ALONG 23W/24W STRETCHES NORTHWARD FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...JUST WEST OF THE 31N61W TO 20N70W TROUGH...TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND AN 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. RIDGE FROM NORTHEAST ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 36N15W TO 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N28W...TO 27N44W TO 24N53W AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... NO DEEP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... NOTHING ELSE. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... NOTHING ELSE. $$ MT