000 AXNT20 KNHC 261729 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED 26 MAY 2004 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. THE FORMAT FOR THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL CHANGE ON JULY 6 2004 BEGINNING WITH THE 205 PM ISSUANCE. INFORMATION ABOUT THE CHANGES IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/SCN04-26ATL.TXT (ALL LOWERCASE). BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURE... THE LOW S OF BERMUDA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A THREAT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. SEE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W/34W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND COULD BE POSITIONED FARTHER W IN FUTURE ANALYSES. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 32W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN A NORTHWARD KINK IN THE ITCZ A BIT FARTHER E AND A LITTLE MORE TURNING IN THE LOW/MID CLOUD FIELD TO THE W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 49W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS OR RECENT RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS. IT COULD BE DROPPED IN LATER ANALYSES. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ON THE MAP TODAY... CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W-82W. AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N28W 4N38W 8N49W 7N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 2N BETWEEN 2W-5W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 24W-31W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 35W-42W. WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 42W-49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF AXIS W OF 55W. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS THE FEATURES IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC HAS MOVED EASTWARD SOME WHILE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ANY FEATURE IN THE DEEP TROPICS... LEADING TO A TILT OF MOST FEATURES FROM SW TO NE. AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO IS RIDGING ENE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM S TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH AND W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC/NW CARIBBEAN IS CREATING SOME VERY DRY AIR S OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF. NARROW TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NW ATLC NEAR 31N69W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE AT ABOUT 20N WITH A LOW POSSIBLY FORMING OVER SE MEXICO WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC FEATURE LINKS UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND HEADS EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH HAS SWEPT THE SYSTEM THAT GAVE THE DEADLY RAINS TO HISPANIOLA FAR OUT TO SEA WITH TOO MUCH WIND SHEAR FOR ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. ELLIPTICALLY-SHAPED ANTICYCLONE IS SITTING N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W WITH RIDGE AXIS NE TO 32N50W AND SW TO 12N73W THEN 11N85W NEAR COSTA RICA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BASICALLY CONTROLS THE AREA E OF THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN TROUGH AXIS TO 51W. ELY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN S AMERICA E OF 75W WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS PENETRATING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. A TROUGH IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN/W ATLC HIGH AND A LARGE HIGH IN THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC WITH TROUGH AXIS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N41W TO 20N44W SSW TO 12N50W. TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ AND IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A SLIM REGION OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 240 NM OF ITS AXIS. THE E AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PLUS SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH OVER W AFRICA WITH RIDGE AXIS WSW FROM SENEGAL TO 8N48W. RIDGING IS ALSO AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH ALONG 30W. HIGH IS SHIFTED MUCH FARTHER N THAN AVERAGE WITH MODESTLY DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW OVER THE ITCZ. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE FAR NE SUBTROPICAL ATLC N OF 22N E OF 20W. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM SMALL 1019 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR NASSAU WITH AXIS W INTO A STATIONARY 1017 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA WITH RIDGE AXIS WNW INTO SE TEXAS. 1009 MB LOW IS S OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N66W SCOOTING TO THE ENE AT ABOUT 20 KT. TROUGH FROM THE LOW EXTENDS SW INTO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 27N63W 22N67.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-60W. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WITH 1028 MB CENTER NEAR 32N25W RIDGING SW TO 26N46W TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N68W. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W. DISSIPATING SHOWERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA FROM 75W-78W. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 49W-56W. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... A FEW SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND COASTAL WATERS S OF 23N BETWEEN 71W-75W. $$ BLAKE