000 AXNT20 KNHC 250632 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE 25 MAY 2004 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. THE FORMAT FOR THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL CHANGE ON JULY 6 2004 BEGINNING WITH THE 205 PM ISSUANCE. INFORMATION ABOUT THE CHANGES IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/SCN04-26ATL.TXT (ALL LOWERCASE). BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURE... ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH FROM 24N64W TO 1010 MB SOUTHERN BAHAMAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N74W. TROUGH CONTINUES FROM LOW CENTER TO HAITI NEAR 18N73W...15N77W IN WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... TO SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...AND IN SMALL CELLS ONLY WITHIN 15-30 NM RADIUS OF 21N71W...AND FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. OTHER CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PART TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PART...AS SURFACE WIND FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS MOVED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 16N85W 23N79W 32N77W TO 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A RIDGE...IS IN THIS AREA. THIS FEATURE IS SEEN CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE ALSO ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS HAS BEEN LOCATED BASED ON UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA. POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN SE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE SE WIND FLOW IS MOVING TOWARD BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 23N74W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE LOW/TROUGH N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO MAKE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE PROBLEMATIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION 5N3W 7N15W 4N40W 8N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 19W AND 40W... AND WITHIN 30-40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A RIDGE...COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 17N131W 28N124W 32N119W AND 31N89W 19N95W IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ENGULFS A TROUGH...IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE WESTERN ATLC RIDGE... WHICH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N74W AND ITS ACCOMPANYING TROUGHS NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. TROUGH ALONG 31N78W 24N81W IN STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W AND FINALLY 14N90W NEAR WESTERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS THROUGH 33N18W TO 26N30W TO 28N38W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...WITH NO DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITHIN 120-180 NM ON EITHER SIDE 14N54W 17N43W 22N32W. SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N12W TO 29N17W AND 31N24W. TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 10N CLOSER TO AFRICA...TO 8N CLOSER TO 48W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 30N11W 22N30W 11N50W. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... RIDGE FROM 1017 MB NE GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N85W...TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO SW GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 60W. 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N50W. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... NO DEEP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... NOTHING ELSE. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... NOTHING ELSE. $$ MT