000 AXNT20 KNHC 240609 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON 24 MAY 2004 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. THE FORMAT FOR THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL CHANGE ON JULY 6 2004 BEGINNING WITH THE 205 PM ISSUANCE. INFORMATION ABOUT THE CHANGES IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OM/NOTIFICATION/SCN04-26ATL.TXT (ALL LOWERCASE). BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED. SEE ITCZ AXIS FOR CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W/55W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W/66W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH BROAD LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DUE TO THIS INTERACTION SEE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION BELOW. AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 5N24W 9N42W 10N52W 10N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 11W TO 17W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 14W TO 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 210 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 10W TO 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 23W TO 28W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 35W TO 45W. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN... QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE W GULF W OF 89W. A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH S OF W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW OVER HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N89W FUNNELING EXTREMELY DRY AIR S FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO IN 48 HOURS PRODUCING STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC... WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N69W WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING N WELL BEYOND 32N67W. THIS FEATURE HAS CAUSED LARGE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA AND HAS ALLOWED THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUALLY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 55W TO 79W OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THIS IS PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA DUE TO ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N81W ACROSS CUBA ALONG 30N73W THEN E TO 31N64W. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NE NARROWING THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. CENTRAL ATLANTIC... UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BUT EXTENDS FURTHER S THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N37W SW INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N51W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN 450/500 NM OF THE AXIS. LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N FROM 40W TO 56W. THE JETSTREAM WEAKENS ON THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE TROUGH WITH WINDS OF 60 TO 80 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 30N61W TO 14N47W. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT WILL NARROW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 12N60W S OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 23N35W TO A PEAK NEAR 32N17W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 10N15W ALONG 9N32W TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N54W. JETSTREAM REGAINS STRENGTH WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N42W TO 27N20W. THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRO THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 21N65W W ALONG 20N70W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE DOMINATE FEATURE...A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W CONTINUING SW ALONG 15N74W 13N80W TO OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA TO 10N81W. THE LOW IS MOVING NNE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA AT ABOUT 5-10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N FROM 20W TO 60W AND N OF 25N FROM 60W TO 85W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EAST/WEST FROM 23N20W THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W TO 30N85W OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND SE UNITED STATES. A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W DRIFTING SE INTO THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO WHICH IS ALL DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. SINCE IT HAS BEEN RAINING HEAVILY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA SEEM TO BE EXACERBATING THE SITUATION... FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY OVER STEEP-SLOPED TERRAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF GUADELOUPE TO OVER TOBAGO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA FROM 69W TO 74W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF A LINE FROM 11N57W TO 17N60W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 30N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W AND 76W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY S OF 22N FROM 67W TO 73W AND INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. $$ WALLACE