000 AXNT20 KNHC 262356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI 26 MAR 2004 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER/TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS CONSIDERING CHANGING THE FORMAT OF THIS PRODUCT. A SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSED CHANGES AND AN EXAMPLE ARE POSTED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/NEWTWDFORMAT.SHTML (ALL LOWER CASE). THE EVALUATION PERIOD WILL END APRIL 30 2004. DURING THIS PERIOD WE ENCOURAGE YOUR COMMENTS OR SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENTS. A LINK TO A FEEDBACK FORM IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB SITE GIVEN ABOVE. YOUR FEEDBACK WILL HELP US TO DETERMINE PRODUCT QUALITY...IF MODIFICATIONS ARE NEEDED...AND WHETHER THE PROPOSED CHANGES WILL BE ADOPTED. IN QUESTION 8 OF THE SURVEY...PLEASE STATE THAT YOU ARE A USER OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AND WHETHER YOU PREFER THE OLD OR THE PROPOSED NEW VERSION. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N27W EQ40W 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 3N26W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W AND FROM 2N-5.5N BETWEEN 9W-21W. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... RATHER QUIET IN MOST OF THE BASIN... WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THRU THE BAHAMAS.. ENHANCING SOME SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL AND E BAHAMAS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ACCOMPANIED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND A FEW TSTMS OVER NW COLOMBIA. THE FEATURE GENERATING THE MOST INTEREST TO THE OFFICE IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA-- A RARE S ATLC HURRICANE SE OF BRAZIL. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W-CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 55W N OF 19N... CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG A STATIONARY COLD FRONT AND AT THE NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 53W-66W. RIDGE IS DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH ALONG 21N45W-31N47W FILLED WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS CONTROLLED BY A LARGE TROUGH WITH UPPER LOW CENTERS NEAR 30N24W AND 27N34W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF A LINE FROM 17N42W TO 23N16W IN NW SAHARA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN THE LOW CENTERS AND THE SOUTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW BOUNDARY. THE TROPICAL ATLC HAS WSW WINDS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... WINDS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE SUBTROPICAL W ATLC WITH THE GALE WARNINGS BEING TAKEN DOWN. HOWEVER STRONG ELY WINDS STILL CONTINUE WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N52W ALONG 27N55W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING NEAR 24N61W FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AROUND 19N70W. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT IS AFFECTING PUERTO RICO TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLAND. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 25N53 28N51W 31N51W. PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N52W 25N54W. ISOLATED WEAK/MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH. 1001 MB LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N24W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 26N26W 25N34W 27N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 21W-26W. WEAK TROUGH IS NEAR NW AFRICA FROM 21N24W TO THE E CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N14W. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FROM PUERTO RICO THRU HISPANIOLA INTO CUBA TODAY UNDER THE STRONG NE FLOW. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS ALSO EXTENDING INTO JAMAICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN N NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... NONE. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF THE W-CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WITH LESS CLOUDINESS W OF THE BAHAMAS THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED LOW. $$ BLAKE