000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101757 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...LIDIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 107.2W ABOUT 155 MI...260 KM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Manzanillo to El Roblito A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * El Roblito to Mazatlan * Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.2 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should make landfall within the hurricane warning area in west-central Mexico this evening or overnight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Lidia will likely be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after Lidia moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi