000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...LIDIA ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 110.9W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 110.9 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected this evening and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast later today and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure of 985 mb (29.09 inches) is based on data collected by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical storm strength by Tuesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi