000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090550 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 1200 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...LIDIA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS, RAINFALL IMPACTS, STORM SURGE, AND HIGH SURF ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 112.6W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 112.6 West. A microwave pass that was received just after the previous advisory depicted that the center was further south than estimated at 0300 UTC. Lidia is moving toward the north near 6 mph (10 km/h). A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast later today and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly