000
WTPZ35 KNHC 051138
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
600 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.0 West. Xavier is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is forecast
today.  A westward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the
coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with isolated maximum
amounts of 4 inches possible.  This rainfall may produce flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this morning.

SURF:  Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Berg