000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082348 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...CENTER OF ERICK PASSING WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 111.1W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERICK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN