000
WTPZ35 KNHC 080534
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
...ERICK NEARING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENNISULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 109.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST.  ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER WESTERN JALISCO...NAYARIT...SOUTHERN SINALOA...
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH