000
WTPZ35 KNHC 072346
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
...ERICK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 108.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD
PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
MONDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 
THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER JALISCO...NAYARIT...SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN