000
WTPZ35 KNHC 072040
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
...ERICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 108.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER JALISCO...NAYARIT...SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART