000
WTPZ35 KNHC 071152
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
...ERICK MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 106.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
  
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY
MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER JALISCO...NAYARIT...SINALOA...WESTERN
DURANGO...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART